Slow Adoption Next Gen

running_in_jam

Videogame Sound Designer and Composer
#1
I wanted to link to a recent article by @Emily Rogers http://www.notenoughshaders.com/2013/03/06/expect-slow-adoption-of-all-three-consoles-next-generation/

It's a very
interesting read, and an interesting observation comparing the upcoming Gen to Gen 5.

I can't even imagine how bleak the next few years are
looking for developers working on next gen titles, and I also wonder how long developers will continue making ports for 360/PS3 to go alongside PS4/720 releases. Frankly it's hard to blame developers/publishers playing it safe and avoiding Wii U, when the numbers simply aren't feasible.

Discuss!

And kudos to Emily for such a good analysis.
 

GamingFreak1988

The Platformer Guru
#3
I really am curious to how well the ps4 and microsofts next gen system will sell at first. Will it start off big and remain constant, or do what the wiiu is currently then drop really low.. If it does the latter it probably will be a big concern to developers.
 
#4
I expect all consoles to have huge problems this gen. And to sell less or way worst than the seventh generation.

I'm dying to read the excuses for the super HD twins.
 
#6
Honestly, I think it'll depend on Nintendo.
I think if by Next Christmas the WiiU hasn't sold at least 20 million, then it'll probably be especially slow. It's possible for the PS4 and 720 to speed up around then, but an optimistic guess (over optimistic if you ask me) is they could sell 15 million by the end of Next Christmas... (and that assumes they can meet supply and demand is super high)... and I'm not sure if 15 million from PS4 and/or 720 is going to do it, wither the haters like it or not the WiiU was first to kick things off, if it doesn't have modest units then the combine sales of 720 and PS4 on a really good year aren't going to be enough to sway developer who don't want to gamble big on ignoring the current gen HD twins and fully committing to developing next gen titles. The WiiU is going to have to pull in modest numbers at least.
All that doom and gloom out of the way, I'm sure the WiiU will be able to pull in enough numbers to at least get 30 Million units across all three systems by the end of 2014 to have at least 2015 be the year current gen to really start winding down, I just think with the way gamers don't really seem to care, and are pretty satisfied with the experience and features they have as with the looming cost of trying to build games to fully take advantage of next gen titles with the rising standard demand from customers, as with the attention of other devices like Tablets, and over all doom and gloom from the media make it seem more of a sure thing to keep with current gen for now from a 3rd party perspective. (Still, even 2 years into the cycle is a long time though)
 

Aki

Well-Known Member
#7
I have to disagree with Emily Rogers. I don't think next-gen console adoption rates will be low simply because Wii U is selling bad. I think that Playstation and Xbox will sell like gangbusters. I think that Sony is planning of selling upwards of 15 million units in it's first year.

I think that the reasons why Wii U isn't selling too hot is because not many people know about it and the ones that do know about it, they don't think it's next-gen and I don't blame them. Nintendo hasn't done a great job of marketing this thing at all. There are rarely any commercials for it, the two commercials that they did have, didn't really show off the console. No one cares about NintendoLand and New Super Mario Bros. U looks like it was whipped up in the year between E3 and launch.

There have been no games that have come out on Wii that were system sellers, not to mention, most of the games that came out were ports from other systems. It doesn't seem like Nintendo is even trying to steal consumers away from Playstation or Xbox, it seems like they just want to make sure Wii owners upgrade and they want to try and get back those Wii players who switched sides.
 

Superfakerbros

ECE 2018
Moderator
#8
@Aki64
If they can sell well in this economy at a higher price point and sell better than the Wii-U, than I'll eat my hat. Also, while Sony may be planning to sell 15 million units in its first year, that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Nintendo planned to have 5 million sold by March and look how that turned out
Agreed
Agreed, at least until E3 2013
 

running_in_jam

Videogame Sound Designer and Composer
#9
Of course, its difficult for anyone to make a real judgement call on how well the consoles will sell. In 6 months time it might be easier. Nevertheless, what I really wanted to get to the core of is when devs will make the gigantic leap off of 360/ps3. What Emily's article pointed out was that in console lifecycle, the majority of the userbase doesn't start flowing in until 3~ years after launch.

My question is how will devs justify the price of developing for new systems, when the 360/ps3 have millions of users at hand? Of course the natural response is to say "the developers will develop new titles for all systems!" but then what incentive do customers have to buy a brand new console? It's a console gen transition so of course it's going to happen, but with costs being so astronomically high and studios closing left and right, who's going to survive making the jump?
 
#10
I think the consoles will sell very slowly at first and at the first sight of the economy getting better in a couple years sales will sky rocket. I mean look at how much 360 is selling right now late in its life span.
 

Ex-Actarus

Well-Known Member
#11
I think the next gen adoption will be faster than in the last gen IF the price is right !!!
If Microsoft and Sony come with bold move and a 299 $ console ( low end model ), the adoption will be fast.
If they go for 399 $ as an entry price, I won't expect a fast adoption.
Let's wait for the pricing, then we can make predictions.
 

Juegos

All mods go to heaven.
Moderator
#12
I think it's weird that people are counting on sales skyrocketing "once the economy gets better". Who said it's getting better? We have been on a cycle of booms and recessions for a long time, yeah, but this time is different. A lot of economy bubbles are bursting, and many industries are changing. Whether the economy gets slightly better, radically better, or radically worse, is completely up in the air.
Anyway, I agree that sales for next-gen consoles will be slow at first, unless Microsoft does their weird rent-a-system thing that was rumored. The PS4 just needs a decent price. $450 is more than indecent to me, so hopefully it's well below that.
 

Majorbuddah

My real name is Dolemite
#13
it all depends on the games. if xbox3 launches with halo 5 (i've read that 343, for better or worse, plans to make halo a yearly release) and ps4 launches with mgs5 - or something - then they will sell excellently. unlike wii u, i expect the launch games for xbox3/ps4 to to be visually appealing enough to get people excited about playing the evolutionary leaps of their favorite franchises.

but it all depends on the games. they can tack on all the social media streaming movie camera motion tracking bullshit in the world; if the games on their own don't get people excited to spend 400 bucks, then they'll struggle at launch. hopefully they are aware of this.
 

repomech

resident remnant robot relic
#14
I think it's weird that people are counting on sales skyrocketing "once the economy gets better". Who said it's getting better? We have been on a cycle of booms and recessions for a long time, yeah, but this time is different. A lot of economy bubbles are bursting, and many industries are changing. Whether the economy gets slightly better, radically better, or radically worse, is completely up in the air.
Slow applause for you on this one.

Real wages have declined or stagnated right across the so-called industrial world for a generation now (human generation, not console generation) as a small minority of the population has disproportionately taken the lion's share of new wealth in the last decades. A "recovery" from one recession cycle (assuming it even happens and doesn't just dip back into another crisis), doesn't even mean everyone gets their jobs back or ones that pay equivalent amounts, let alone actually see an improvement. It refers to a narrower set of economic criteria that no longer correlate well with the material well being of most people.

In a nutshell even if "the economy" "recovers" it doesn't mean the layers of society that form the traditional consumer base for things like consoles will have the disposable income they did before.
 

Ex-Actarus

Well-Known Member
#15
it all depends on the games. if xbox3 launches with halo 5 (i've read that 343, for better or worse, plans to make halo a yearly release) and ps4 launches with mgs5 - or something - then they will sell excellently. unlike wii u, i expect the launch games for xbox3/ps4 to to be visually appealing enough to get people excited about playing the evolutionary leaps of their favorite franchises.

but it all depends on the games. they can tack on all the social media streaming movie camera motion tracking bullshit in the world; if the games on their own don't get people excited to spend 400 bucks, then they'll struggle at launch. hopefully they are aware of this.
If the 720 launches with Halo 5, but cost 500$ forget about a quick adoption.
Same goes for the PS4 with MGS 5 at launch.
Both console NEED to have the right price.
the 3DS, the Vita and the Wii U had slow starts.
consumers today are not spending crazy money with other devices around like Smartphones and Tablets.
 

Majorbuddah

My real name is Dolemite
#16
consumers today are not spending crazy money with other devices around like Smartphones and Tablets.

i think people are ready to spend $$ on next gen consoles. just as much now as they were last gen, if not more. of course there's a point where cost becomes prohibitive, and i think sony and ms are aware of that. i expect the new consoles to cost around $400-$450. if the games are there, then people will buy them.
 
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