Xbox One Sales : Pachter vs Ex-Actarus

Ex-Actarus

Well-Known Member
#1



VS





As some of you may know, I'm a subscriber at SIFTD games the videogames websites created by Shane Satterfield ( ex-Chief Editor at Gametrailers ). There a is new show called the "Patcher Factor" which is pretty much the same show as the famous "Pach-Attack" on Gametrailers. I was asking questions all the time on both shows, but I never had any of my questions selected, until now... :)

I was pleasently surprised to see that my question was selected in the Episode 11 of the Patcher Factor. My question and the answer can be seen from minute 8.30.


In a nutshell I was saying the PS4 sold twice more that the Xbox One ( 36 M vs 18 M ). The Xbox One would struggle reaching 50 million and Microsoft could possibly exit the gaming business if that happens.

Patcher totally disagree. He believes Microsoft can reduce the price of the Xbox One at 250$ and the console will sell a lot more as it would more affordable for most household. He expects the PS4 and the Xbox One to sell 200 million this gen ( 120 million for the Ps4 / 80 million for the Xbox One ). And he doesn't expect Microsoft to exit the videogames industry as it will still be very profitable business for them.

I disagree with Patcher. There is no way the PS4 and Xbox One will sell 200 million this gen. I can see the PS4 reaching 100 million units ( by the way 36 million is behind the 42 million the Wii had at same time in its lifetime ), but 80 million for the Xbox One ? Not a chance ! All the advantages the 360 had : better online experience, best exclusives ( initially ), the console of choice for 3rd party games or Kinect are gone ! Not to mention that the PS4 is selling more than the Xbox One in UK and in the US which wasn't the case last gen.


So who are you siding with TNE ? I will especially call @TechnoHobbit and @Goodtwin to share their expert opinion on the matter :)
 
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Koenig

The Architect
#2
Its to early for me to make a guess, and it also depends on how long this "Generation" lasts; but I would not sell either system short this early on.

Also it is Pachter, not Patcher.
 

Goodtwin

Well-Known Member
#3
I rarely agree with anything he says. His opinion is just that, his opinion. Not worth anymore than any of our opinions. I agree that Xbox One will not sell more than 50 million units. They will remain in the business unless they are able to sell off the division. PS4 will dominate, and will sell over 100 million units. I expect a new Xbox and PS5 in 2018.

Sent from my SM-G360V using Tapatalk
 

MANGANian

Megalomaniacal Robo-Zombie
#6
In my opinion, people are expecting way too much this generation. I don't see the PS4 crossing 100 million unless Sony wants to forcibly prolong the PS4 market lifetime like they did with the PS3, likewise for the Xbone. And in the case of the Wii U, 50 million will be a dream. It's selling at a slightly slower pace than the PS3.
 
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Odo

Well-Known Member
#8
Patcher totally disagree. He believes Microsoft can reduce the price of the Xbox One at 250$ and the console will sell a lot more as it would more affordable for most household. He expects the PS4 and the Xbox One to sell 200 million this gen ( 120 million for the Ps4 / 80 million for the Xbox One ). And he doesn't expect Microsoft to exit the videogames industry as it will still be very profitable business for them.
100% agreed!

In my opinion, people are expecting way too much this generation. I don't see the PS4 crossing 100 million unless Sony wants to forcefully prolong the PS4 market lifetime like they did with the PS3, likewise for the Xbone. And in the case of the Wii U, 50 million will be a dream. It's selling at a slightly slower pace than the PS3.
100% agreed!

No way PS4 will reach Wii numbers.

That time is over.

I bet 2016 is going to be the last Xbox/Ps4 numbers peak. It's going to be way down from that on.
 

TechnoHobbit

Ash nazg durbatulûk
#11
I'm learning towards your numbers a little more. I think the PS4 based off market trends will get to around 100-110M lifetime and the Xbox One will get to around 50-60M lifetime. This is of course ignoring the NX and what it could do to the market as we know nothing about it.

I feel Microsoft will stick around for at least another gen, they have so much money I don't think how much Xbox makes or loses matters a ton to the upper-upper-management.
 

Koenig

The Architect
#12
I'm learning towards your numbers a little more. I think the PS4 based off market trends will get to around 100-110M lifetime and the Xbox One will get to around 50-60M lifetime. This is of course ignoring the NX and what it could do to the market as we know nothing about it.

I feel Microsoft will stick around for at least another gen, they have so much money I don't think how much Xbox makes or loses matters a ton to the upper-upper-management.
Not to mention how much they have started to integrate gaming into their windows systems as well. Pulling out right away would cost them far more than it would save. Even if they do decide to pull out though, they will likely do so slowly, milking it for all its worth.
 

Odo

Well-Known Member
#13
Don't forget that Microsoft almost sold xbox division before One. There are many Microsoft investors that don't believe in Xbox including the current president, I think.
 

isturbo1984

Whoremonger & Cokefiend
#14
In a nutshell I was saying the PS4 sold twice more that the Xbox One ( 36 M vs 18 M ). The Xbox One would struggle reaching 50 million and Microsoft could possibly exit the gaming business if that happens.:)
So number crunching aside... You basically disagree with Pachter because he doesn't think Microsoft will sell out and get out of the industry. Is that about right?

You are also forgetting something vital here: Xbox Live. Microsoft gets way more revenue from their service than say... Sony or Nintendo does from their service. It's been ingrained into the Xbox console experience. They can be profitable with much less units sold.

Edit:
Question. Where is the math with you thinking the XOne will "struggle" to reach 50m lifetime... but the PS4 will easily hit 100m? Reason why I ask, is because the PS4 hasn't even outsold the Xbox One by double yet. In fact, that 2:1 gap keeps getting wider and wider.
 
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Odo

Well-Known Member
#15
So number crunching aside... You basically disagree with Pachter because he doesn't think Microsoft will sell out and get out of the industry. Is that about right?

You are also forgetting something vital here: Xbox Live. Microsoft gets way more revenue from their service than say... Sony or Nintendo does from their service. It's been ingrained into the Xbox console experience. They can be profitable with much less units sold.

Edit:
Question. Where is the math with you thinking the XOne will "struggle" to reach 50m lifetime... but the PS4 will easily hit 100m? Reason why I ask, is because the PS4 hasn't even outsold the Xbox One by double yet. In fact, that 2:1 gap keeps getting wider and wider.
Yeah, I don't think PS4 will hit 100m. Let alone doing it easily.
 

Odo

Well-Known Member
#17
I guess I said PS4 won't hit 100m too early. It's hitting 60m soon and I don't doubt PS4 will be a 100m seller console anymore. I'm not sure, but I don't think it will be too hard for Sony to sell more 40m units.
 

Odo

Well-Known Member
#19
XBO is selling around 85-100k a week. It sells more than 3DS and it sold more than NSW in a few past weeks.

What I feel is that XBO is sort of pointless now unless one's only into multi-plats. Microsoft franchises and exclusives looks like dead.
 
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